Thin-Film, Organic and Printable Photovoltaics Markets: 2007-2015

Abstract

In early 2006 NanoMarkets released a report that examined and quantified the emerging market for thin film/flexible photovoltaic technology. It examined the virtues and disadvantages or rival research programs, such as silicon on metal, CIGS on metal and organic PV and compared the various strategies being employed to create new PV products for the mobile computer and communications, building materials, outdoor power, emergency power and other sectors. The report provided detailed forecasts of PV shipments broken out by technology type and application. It also discussed how far this new type of photovoltaics would eat into traditional photovoltaics markets.

In our new report NanoMarkets offers a fresh assessment of the space with additional details on technology, material and applications, a new market forecast as well as analysis of the strategies of leading firms active in this space. The materials platforms covered in this report include silicon, CIGS, polymers, small molecules, CdTe, and GaAs as well as various hybrid materials strategies. We also discuss emerging PV technology based on nanotechnology and so-called Third-generation Photovoltaics. Each of these technologies arereviewed in terms of their key performance characteristics (e.g., conversion efficiencies, costs per watt, etc.) and how these might improve in the future. We also look at the evolution of roll-to-roll and printing processes for TOP electronics-based PV and particular attention is given to the market implications of the ability to create PV on flexible substrates.

For all of the TOP electronics approaches to PV, we examine their commercial advantages and disadvantages and in which market segments they are likely to find a successful application. Market segments examined in detail include building integrated systems, mobile and wearable computing, central power generation, disposable electronics, portable and emergency power (including battery chargers), and military applications. The report also includes detailed eight-year forecasts of PV shipments broken out by technology type and application and discusses how far this new type of photovoltaics can eat into traditional photovoltaics markets. Assessments of all the leading firms active in the TOP PV space are also included and the coverage includes start-ups and established firms offering both materials and PV technology into this sector.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

• E.1 Thin Film, Organic and Printable Photovoltaics: The Opportunities
  • E.1.1 Applications and Markets
  • E.1.2 TF PV and Global Energy Markets
• E.2 Thin-Film, Organic and Printable Photovoltaics: The Risks
  • E.2.1 Will Silicon Abundance Hurt the TF PV Business?
  • E.2.2 How Long Will the PV Boom Last?
  • E.2.3 Other Concerns
• E.3 Firms To Watch

Chapter One: Introduction

• 1.1 Background to Report
  • 1.1.1 Thin-Film Photovoltaics: Low-Cost, Low-Weight
  • 1.1.2 Where Thin-Film Photovoltaics Fits in the Marketplace
  • 1.1.3 Uncertainties and Challenges
• 1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
• 1.3 Methodology of this Report
• 1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Thin-Film Technology, Materials and Production Strategies

• 2.1 Evolution and Current State of Photovoltaics Markets
• 2.2 Amorphous Silicon
  • 2.2.1 Evolution of Manufacturing Processes for Amorphous Silicon PV
  • 2.2.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
  • 2.2.3 Other Forms of Silicon TF PV
  • 2.2.4 Manufacturers of Amorphous Silicon PV
• 2.3 CIS/CIGS
  • 2.3.1 Evolution of Manufacturing Processes for CIS/CIGS
  • 2.3.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
  • 2.3.3 Manufacturers of CIGS PV
• 2.4 CdTe
  • 2.4.1 Evolution of Manufacturing Processes for CdTe
  • 2.4.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
  • 2.4.3 Manufacturers of CdTe PV
• 2.5 Organic PV
  • 2.5.1 Evolution of Materials and Manufacturing Processes for Organic PV
  • 2.5.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
  • 2.5.3 Manufacturers of Organic PV
• 2.6 Other Materials Used for TF PV
  • 2.6.1 Silicon Inks and Nanocrystalline Silicon
  • 2.6.2 Carbon Nanotubes and Other Nanomaterials
  • 2.6.3 Conventional Compound Semiconductors
  • 2.6.4 Encapsulation and Barrier Materials
• 2.7 New Directions for Production: The Role of Printing

Chapter Three: Markets for Thin-Film Photovoltaics

• 3.1 Introduction: Drivers for the Thin-Film PV Market
  • 3.1.1 The Basic Value Proposition of TF PV
  • 3.1.2 TF PV, Geography and Public Policy
  • 3.1.3 Ability to Create New Products
• 3.2 Large Projects and Central Generation
• 3.3 Building Integrated Systems
  • 3.3.1 TFPV and Rooftop Systems
  • 3.3.2 TFPV and Smart Windows
• 3.4 Consumer Electronics
• 3.5 Military and Emergency Applications
• 3.6 Other Applications

Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts of Thin-Film, Organic and Printable PV

• 4.1 Forecasting Methodology
  • 4.1.1 Data Sources
  • 4.1.2 Forecasting in a Hyper-Growth Market and Alternative Scenarios
  • 4.1.3 Scope of Forecast
  • 4.1.4 Other Factors Taken into Consideration in the Forecast
  • 4.1.5 How Much Confidence Should You Have in These Forecasts?
  • 4.1.6 Comparison with Previous NanoMarkets Forecasts
• 4.2 Forecasts of Thin-Film, Organic and Printable PV Markets by Applications
  • 4.2.1 Forecast of Thin-Film Share of Worldwide PV Market
• 4.3 Forecasts of Application Revenue Broken Out by Material
  • 4.3.1 a-Si
  • 4.3.2 CIS/CIGS
  • 4.3.3 CdTe
  • 4.3.4 Organic and Hybrid Organic/Inorganic Materials
  • 4.3.5 Other Materials
• 4.4 Summaries of Eight-Year Thin-Film Film Market Forecasts by Materials
• 4.5 Summaries of Eight-Year Thin-Film Film Market Forecasts by Applications
• 4.6 Forecast of PV Markets by Production Technology
• Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report

About the Author

List of Exhibits

• Exhibit E-1: Claimed Advantages of Thin-Film Approaches
• Exhibit E-2: Opportunities for TF PV
• Exhibit E-3: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Application ($ Million)
• Exhibit 2-1: List of Materials Used for PV
• Exhibit 2-2: Selected Firms Active in the a-Si PV Market
• Exhibit 2-3: Firms Active in the CIS/CIGS PV Market
• Exhibit 2-4: Organic PV Firms
• Exhibit 4-1: Alternative Scenarios for the Evolution of Thin-Film Photovoltaics
• Exhibit 4-2: Eight-Year Forecasts of TF PV Market Penetration
• Exhibit 4-3: Worldwide Production of a-Si Photovoltaics
• Exhibit 4-4: Breakout of a-Si Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 4-5: Worldwide Production of CIS/CIGS Photovoltaics
• Exhibit 4-6: Breakout of CIS/CIGS Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Millions)
• Exhibit 4-7: Short-Term Expansion of CdTe TF PV Capacity
• Exhibit 4-8: Worldwide Production of CdTe Photovoltaics
• Exhibit 4-9: Breakout of CdTe Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Million)
• Exhibit 4-10: Worldwide Production of Organic and Hybrid Organic/Inorganic Photovoltaics
• Exhibit 4-11: Breakout of Organic and Hybrid Organic/Inorganic Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Million)
• Exhibit 4-12: Worldwide Production of "Other" Thin-Film Photovoltaics
• Exhibit 4-13: Breakout of "Other" Thin-Film Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($ Million)
• Exhibit 4-14: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Shipments by Material ($ Million)
• Exhibit 4-15: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Shipments by Material ( MW)
• Exhibit 4-16: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Application ($ Million)
• Exhibit 4-17: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Production Technology ($ Million)